Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190915 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00     77.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  13.6  21.7  25.9  24.7  18.5  25.3  33.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  46.0  47.0  42.0  33.0  30.0  27.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 114.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  55.0  65.0  50.0  48.0  52.0  49.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  61.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.9  13.6  21.7  25.9  24.7  18.5  25.3  33.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.0%        6.2%        6.6%
 25kt / 24h       14.1%       26.6%       20.4%
 30kt / 24h       10.6%       12.6%       11.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.9%       12.6%        9.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%        7.2%        5.8%
 45kt / 36h       14.0%       19.2%       16.6%
 55kt / 36h        6.8%        6.5%        6.7%
 55kt / 48h        8.1%        9.9%        9.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        2.1%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        5.7%        3.0%        4.4%