Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60     77.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  21.9  26.7  24.5  20.2  27.7  33.2  32.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  44.0  37.0  32.0  28.0  25.0  24.0  23.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 107.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  80.0  48.0  50.0  44.0  26.0  29.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  52.0  49.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.4  21.9  26.7  24.5  20.2  27.7  33.2  32.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.5%       13.6%       15.0%
 25kt / 24h       25.9%       39.2%       32.5%
 30kt / 24h       19.7%       24.8%       22.2%
 35kt / 24h       16.7%       24.8%       20.8%
 40kt / 24h       12.1%       15.2%       13.6%
 45kt / 36h       20.0%       25.8%       22.9%
 55kt / 36h       10.2%       10.6%       10.4%
 55kt / 48h        7.0%       10.7%        8.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        2.5%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        2.8%        3.0%