Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.10     78.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  29.4  24.7  20.7  30.4  37.2  38.3  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  42.0  33.0  30.0  26.0  25.0  24.0  20.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 107.0 109.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  66.0  72.0  47.0  44.0  16.0  46.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  48.0  48.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.4  29.4  24.7  20.7  30.4  37.2  38.3  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.5%        8.0%        8.3%
 25kt / 24h       22.6%       36.0%       29.3%
 30kt / 24h       13.9%       24.5%       19.2%
 35kt / 24h       11.7%       24.5%       18.1%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%       12.8%        8.7%
 45kt / 36h        8.7%       16.5%       12.6%
 55kt / 36h        3.1%        5.9%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        7.2%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        1.7%        1.4%