Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30     77.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  22.5  17.5  27.8  34.5  32.8  30.1  36.3  N  N  F  N  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  29.0  25.0  22.0  21.0  21.0  20.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0  99.3  97.0  97.0  99.3 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  78.0  51.0  24.0  12.0  32.0  52.0  31.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  57.0  54.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0  22.5  17.5  27.8  34.5  32.8  30.1  36.3  N  N  F  N  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.9%       13.9%       16.9%
 25kt / 24h       34.6%       43.8%       39.2%
 30kt / 24h       27.8%       36.7%       32.3%
 35kt / 24h       27.8%       36.7%       32.3%
 40kt / 24h       13.3%       22.2%       17.7%
 45kt / 36h       12.5%       16.7%       14.6%
 55kt / 36h        4.7%        6.5%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        7.7%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%