Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.60     77.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  16.4  26.1  33.4  34.2  32.3  37.5  43.4  N  F  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  25.0  23.0  22.0  22.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  89.3  87.0  87.0  87.0  89.3  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  74.0  30.0   1.0  26.0  50.0  32.0  61.0  F  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  49.0  50.0  48.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.3  16.4  26.1  33.4  34.2  32.3  37.5  43.4  N  F  N  U  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       61.3%       31.9%       46.6%
 25kt / 24h       51.2%       52.3%       51.8%
 30kt / 24h       51.2%       49.9%       50.5%
 35kt / 24h       51.2%       49.9%       50.5%
 40kt / 24h       37.6%       35.5%       36.6%
 45kt / 36h       22.6%       19.0%       20.8%
 55kt / 36h        8.8%        7.9%        8.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        6.7%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%