Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.80     76.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  24.7  33.6  34.2  30.3  36.5  42.6  38.5  F  N  U  U  N  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  28.0  31.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  34.0   5.0  26.0  54.0  49.0  67.0  66.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  49.0  48.0  49.0  48.0  45.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.3  24.7  33.6  34.2  30.3  36.5  42.6  38.5  F  N  U  U  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       44.1%       24.3%       34.2%
 25kt / 24h       37.1%       40.2%       38.7%
 30kt / 24h       37.1%       36.6%       36.9%
 35kt / 24h       37.1%       36.6%       36.9%
 40kt / 24h       18.3%       23.3%       20.8%
 45kt / 36h       15.5%       12.1%       13.8%
 55kt / 36h        5.1%        4.3%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        5.7%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%