Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.10     76.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  34.5  35.8  33.9  40.2  44.1  42.4  46.9  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  23.0  24.0  23.0  28.0  30.0  37.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  18.0  46.0  49.0  46.0  42.0  38.0  39.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  48.0  48.0  46.0  44.0  40.0  41.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.6  34.5  35.8  33.9  40.2  44.1  42.4  46.9  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.8%       15.9%       22.4%
 25kt / 24h       26.9%       28.7%       27.8%
 30kt / 24h       26.9%       23.6%       25.3%
 35kt / 24h       26.9%       23.6%       25.3%
 40kt / 24h        9.5%       12.9%       11.2%
 45kt / 36h       10.0%        6.4%        8.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        2.0%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%