Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30     75.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  35.0  35.5  41.3  45.0  44.0  49.6  60.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  23.0  24.0  28.0  31.0  38.0  29.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  56.0  81.0  60.0  55.0  34.0  31.0  31.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  48.0  46.0  43.0  41.0  41.0  40.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.1  35.0  35.5  41.3  45.0  44.0  49.6  60.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.0%        5.3%        8.2%
 25kt / 24h        9.7%       12.2%       11.0%
 30kt / 24h        9.6%        7.6%        8.6%
 35kt / 24h        9.6%        7.6%        8.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        3.8%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%        2.1%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%