Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190917 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50     74.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.9  32.6  39.6  45.8  48.2  54.5  68.1  81.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  25.0  29.0  31.0  35.0  30.0  18.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  80.0  39.0  36.0  13.0  36.0  49.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  47.0  43.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  43.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.9  32.6  39.6  45.8  48.2  54.5  68.1  81.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.0%        3.5%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%        8.5%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%        4.9%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%        4.9%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        2.2%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%