Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.90     72.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.0  42.5  46.1  54.9  71.0  80.5  83.4  71.2  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  36.0  30.0  31.0  15.0  13.0  11.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  69.6  65.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  55.0  31.0  40.0  54.0   4.0  41.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  43.0  39.0  38.0  40.0  43.0  44.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  39.0  42.5  46.1  54.9  71.0  80.5  83.4  71.2  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.3%        3.6%        7.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.4%        5.2%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%        2.4%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.2%        2.4%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        1.1%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%