Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190918 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.20     71.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.3  47.0  59.1  68.1  86.8  86.6  80.5  66.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  28.0  23.0  13.0  15.0  11.0  17.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  64.3  55.1  50.7  40.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  21.0  44.0  66.0  31.0  63.0  42.0  13.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  38.0  39.0  37.0  40.0  41.0  44.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  43.3  47.0  59.1  68.1  86.8  86.6  80.5  66.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.8%        2.2%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        1.5%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        0.5%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        0.5%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.2%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%