Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50     70.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.6  53.9  68.7  83.7  86.6  81.6  70.2  57.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  34.0  13.0  14.0  10.0  12.0  21.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  64.3  57.3  50.7  42.4  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  36.0  48.0  14.0  46.0  47.0   4.0  27.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  38.0  39.0  41.0  41.0  44.0  42.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  45.6  53.9  68.7  83.7  86.6  81.6  70.2  57.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.7%        1.0%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%