Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90     68.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        57.1  71.1  86.5  92.7  84.0  69.0  56.3  47.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  11.0  14.0   8.0   7.0  13.0   5.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  64.3  57.3  50.7  40.5  19.6  -7.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  36.0  50.0  44.0  54.0  -6.0   0.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  41.0  41.0  42.0  43.0  43.0  42.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  57.1  71.1  86.5  92.7  84.0  69.0  56.3  47.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.1%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%