Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.40     67.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        74.8  87.5  93.9  86.5  72.4  59.4  47.3  45.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  14.0   9.0   7.0  19.0  13.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  59.3  52.3  45.7  37.4  21.0  -2.1 -22.6  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  21.0  44.0  34.0  -5.0  -1.0  28.0  65.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  40.0  39.0  41.0  40.0  42.0  44.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  74.8  87.5  93.9  86.5  72.4  59.4  47.3  45.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%