Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.20     65.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        84.1  95.0  90.3  75.4  63.5  49.5  48.9  41.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   7.0   6.0  12.0  14.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.3  57.3  52.9  42.4  27.7   4.2 -11.3 -20.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  42.0  31.0   6.0  36.0  38.0  47.0  42.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  41.0  42.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  48.0  57.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  84.1  95.0  90.3  75.4  63.5  49.5  48.9  41.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%