Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.50     62.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        94.5  90.9  78.0  68.2  58.0  54.7  44.9  40.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0  10.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.3  40.7  32.4  11.1 -10.7 -29.2 -27.6 -39.2  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  33.0  17.0  11.0  55.0  43.0  61.0  80.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  42.0  42.0  43.0  44.0  46.0  54.0  64.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  94.5  90.9  78.0  68.2  58.0  54.7  44.9  40.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%