Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.00     60.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        97.0  76.1  65.5  54.6  51.2  41.6  40.2  43.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   9.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.7  38.5  19.6  -4.1 -15.0 -22.4 -32.2 -42.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  20.0  28.0  46.0  55.0  51.0  92.0  49.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  43.0  42.0  42.0  47.0  56.0  65.0  67.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  97.0  76.1  65.5  54.6  51.2  41.6  40.2  43.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%