Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.70     59.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        76.7  71.2  65.0  62.0  53.3  47.7  49.7  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.6  23.6   1.7 -14.6 -22.7 -33.4 -37.4 -32.7  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  39.0  53.0  60.0  75.0  91.0  52.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  42.0  44.0  46.0  52.0  61.0  68.0  67.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  76.7  71.2  65.0  62.0  53.3  47.7  49.7  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%