Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20     45.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  16.2  13.5  12.1   9.8  12.8  19.3  20.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  42.0  46.0  38.0  31.0  29.0  32.0  42.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  10.0 -12.0 -29.0 -26.0 -18.0  -7.0  16.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.5  16.2  13.5  12.1   9.8  12.8  19.3  20.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.6%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%       25.1%       15.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%       11.1%        6.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%       11.1%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        3.6%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       35.5%       20.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.4%       18.4%       11.4%
 55kt / 48h       13.2%       21.2%       17.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        8.7%        7.1%
 65kt / 72h       16.8%       19.9%       18.4%