Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190918 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     46.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  16.5  14.5   8.7  14.4  20.9  22.9  24.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  48.0  36.0  29.0  30.0  33.0  42.0  47.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0 -10.0  -5.0 -10.0 -12.0   1.0  13.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  50.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  52.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.4  16.5  14.5   8.7  14.4  20.9  22.9  24.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        6.6%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       14.8%       41.2%       28.0%
 30kt / 24h        8.8%       24.5%       16.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%       24.5%       14.3%
 40kt / 24h        4.1%        9.4%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h       11.7%       46.0%       28.8%
 55kt / 36h        8.0%       27.3%       17.7%
 55kt / 48h       15.7%       24.1%       19.9%
 70kt / 48h        6.4%       10.6%        8.5%
 65kt / 72h       12.0%       16.2%       14.1%