Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90     47.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  12.7  10.6  15.2  23.2  25.0  24.0  28.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  34.0  29.0  29.0  34.0  44.0  48.0  41.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  -1.0  -5.0  -3.0  -6.0  21.0  13.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  47.0  51.0  56.0  59.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.9  12.7  10.6  15.2  23.2  25.0  24.0  28.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        9.3%        6.4%
 25kt / 24h       19.0%       48.1%       33.6%
 30kt / 24h       10.4%       33.3%       21.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%       33.3%       19.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%       12.9%        7.9%
 45kt / 36h       10.8%       48.1%       29.4%
 55kt / 36h        7.1%       30.2%       18.6%
 55kt / 48h       14.0%       24.7%       19.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%       11.1%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h       14.3%       18.9%       16.6%