Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40     48.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  10.4  16.1  24.6  26.3  25.4  29.3  30.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  27.0  29.0  36.0  45.0  45.0  39.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0   5.0 -23.0  -9.0  34.0  15.0   8.0  21.0  U  U VU  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  46.0  45.0  49.0  53.0  57.0  56.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.9  10.4  16.1  24.6  26.3  25.4  29.3  30.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.6%       33.4%       29.0%
 25kt / 24h       43.7%       68.2%       56.0%
 30kt / 24h       30.5%       62.0%       46.2%
 35kt / 24h       25.7%       62.0%       43.8%
 40kt / 24h       22.4%       34.7%       28.5%
 45kt / 36h       25.6%       64.3%       44.9%
 55kt / 36h       18.2%       50.5%       34.4%
 55kt / 48h       16.1%       29.5%       22.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%       14.9%       10.2%
 65kt / 72h       11.2%       21.6%       16.4%