Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80     49.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.3  18.1  24.4  25.3  25.6  28.8  33.6  30.6  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  30.0  37.0  47.0  47.0  39.0  51.0  58.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0 -30.0 -21.0  32.0  35.0  -3.0  14.0  53.0  U VU VU  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  44.0  45.0  49.0  51.0  55.0  55.0  58.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.3  18.1  24.4  25.3  25.6  28.8  33.6  30.6  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.8%       30.4%       26.6%
 25kt / 24h       37.3%       58.9%       48.1%
 30kt / 24h       28.3%       50.7%       39.5%
 35kt / 24h       24.1%       50.7%       37.4%
 40kt / 24h       19.6%       27.7%       23.7%
 45kt / 36h       19.5%       48.7%       34.1%
 55kt / 36h       13.5%       32.5%       23.0%
 55kt / 48h        8.5%       20.3%       14.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        8.0%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        7.6%       11.7%        9.7%