Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20     51.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  22.4  22.1  22.6  25.7  29.2  29.3  28.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  37.0  48.0  47.0  40.0  52.0  59.0  64.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0   6.0  44.0  22.0  14.0  18.0  14.0  52.0 VU  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  58.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.3  22.4  22.1  22.6  25.7  29.2  29.3  28.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.9%       14.6%       14.7%
 25kt / 24h       24.1%       41.1%       32.6%
 30kt / 24h       21.0%       29.0%       25.0%
 35kt / 24h       21.0%       29.0%       25.0%
 40kt / 24h       21.0%       16.1%       18.6%
 45kt / 36h       16.5%       25.5%       21.0%
 55kt / 36h        9.5%       11.6%       10.5%
 55kt / 48h        8.4%       13.1%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        3.2%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        9.1%        7.3%        8.2%