Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     53.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  20.8  24.2  28.4  29.5  29.0  27.2  27.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  48.0  40.0  49.0  58.0  75.0  73.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  29.0   6.0  12.0   9.0   0.0   9.0  18.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  50.0  50.0  54.0  60.0  66.0  69.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.8  20.8  24.2  28.4  29.5  29.0  27.2  27.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.4%        9.3%       10.3%
 25kt / 24h       16.6%       28.1%       22.3%
 30kt / 24h       12.9%       17.9%       15.4%
 35kt / 24h       10.7%       17.9%       14.3%
 40kt / 24h       10.7%        9.7%       10.2%
 45kt / 36h       10.5%       12.8%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%        4.5%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        8.7%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        1.4%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        6.9%        4.0%        5.4%