Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20     55.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  27.3  32.2  32.4  30.7  26.7  27.3  23.2  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  40.0  50.0  57.0  70.0  73.0  78.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  15.0   2.0  11.0  23.0 -10.0  20.0  64.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  48.0  50.0  54.0  59.0  64.0  68.0  70.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.1  27.3  32.2  32.4  30.7  26.7  27.3  23.2  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       52.5%       21.1%       36.8%
 25kt / 24h       42.2%       36.8%       39.5%
 30kt / 24h       42.2%       28.5%       35.4%
 35kt / 24h       42.2%       28.5%       35.4%
 40kt / 24h       42.2%       21.0%       31.6%
 45kt / 36h       22.0%       14.2%       18.1%
 55kt / 36h       11.0%        5.3%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        9.3%        7.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        1.4%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        2.0%        2.3%