Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     56.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  32.6  32.2  28.6  29.6  32.0  28.8  22.9  N  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  50.0  56.0  71.0  73.0  77.0  70.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  18.0  43.0  23.0   5.0   7.0  59.0  24.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  56.0  60.0  66.0  68.0  72.0  75.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.9  32.6  32.2  28.6  29.6  32.0  28.8  22.9  N  U  U  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.9%       12.3%       26.1%
 25kt / 24h       38.7%       24.2%       31.5%
 30kt / 24h       38.7%       15.7%       27.2%
 35kt / 24h       38.7%       15.7%       27.2%
 40kt / 24h       38.7%       10.0%       24.4%
 45kt / 36h       25.9%        9.1%       17.5%
 55kt / 36h        7.0%        3.2%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        3.7%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        0.0%        0.3%