Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10     58.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  30.9  27.8  27.8  30.8  24.3  20.0  28.1  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  55.0  66.0  73.0  74.0  66.0  56.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  34.0  12.0   1.0  -4.0  37.0  21.0  21.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  58.0  63.0  65.0  68.0  72.0  71.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.6  30.9  27.8  27.8  30.8  24.3  20.0  28.1  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.7%        9.7%       21.7%
 25kt / 24h       29.8%       20.2%       25.0%
 30kt / 24h       29.8%       12.7%       21.2%
 35kt / 24h       29.8%       12.7%       21.2%
 40kt / 24h       29.8%        7.5%       18.7%
 45kt / 36h       30.7%        8.8%       19.8%
 55kt / 36h        6.9%        3.4%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        2.9%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%