Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50     59.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  26.8  27.7  30.0  27.1  22.4  26.3  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  62.0  55.0  50.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  19.0  -4.0   0.0  49.0  22.0  22.0  34.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  56.0  62.0  63.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.6  26.8  27.7  30.0  27.1  22.4  26.3  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        1.3%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        4.8%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        1.9%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        1.9%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%        1.3%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%        1.1%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        0.2%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.2%        0.2%