Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     61.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  24.7  28.9  24.3  19.9  23.8  29.2  26.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  75.0  74.0  66.0  60.0  52.0  42.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  -5.0   5.0  29.0  17.0   9.0  31.0  76.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  61.0  63.0  66.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  66.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.1  24.7  28.9  24.3  19.9  23.8  29.2  26.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.8%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%        8.3%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        3.8%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        3.8%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        2.3%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%        2.0%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        3.3%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        0.3%        0.9%