Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90     62.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  31.1  27.2  19.4  22.7  28.6  26.9  26.7  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  74.0  65.0  60.0  51.0  39.0  35.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  11.0  27.0  29.0  45.0  53.0  88.0 101.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  65.0  66.0  69.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.4  31.1  27.2  19.4  22.7  28.6  26.9  26.7  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        3.9%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h       11.4%       19.5%       15.4%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%       12.8%        9.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       12.8%        8.0%
 40kt / 24h        3.2%        7.0%        5.1%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%        5.1%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        1.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        7.2%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        0.6%        1.0%