Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00     63.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  27.3  19.4  24.5  30.9  28.5  33.5  39.2  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  56.0  52.0  46.0  37.0  34.0  33.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  48.0  27.0  39.0  48.0  92.0  95.0  50.0  U  N  U  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.3  27.3  19.4  24.5  30.9  28.5  33.5  39.2  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%       10.0%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        4.5%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.5%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        3.4%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        3.5%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        0.4%        0.5%