Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70     64.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  24.5  27.7  32.2  30.0  33.5  42.7  44.6  N  N  N  U  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  43.0  33.0  28.0  25.0  28.0  31.0  32.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  30.0  53.0  56.0  72.0  87.0  27.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  69.0  67.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  59.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.1  24.5  27.7  32.2  30.0  33.5  42.7  44.6  N  N  N  U  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        8.7%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.4%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.4%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        3.7%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%