Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50     65.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  27.7  31.4  31.1  35.4  42.9  44.3  43.6  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  33.0  28.0  26.0  29.0  33.0  31.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  47.0  50.0  66.0  73.0  50.0  55.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  62.0  61.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.3  27.7  31.4  31.1  35.4  42.9  44.3  43.6  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        2.4%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%       11.7%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        4.5%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        4.5%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        2.3%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        3.9%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%