Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70     66.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  32.3  32.0  36.1  44.7  44.0  42.5  44.1  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  26.0  26.0  31.0  34.0  29.0  20.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  58.0  70.0  94.0  19.0  49.0  82.0  54.0  N  N  N  F  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  52.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.6  32.3  32.0  36.1  44.7  44.0  42.5  44.1  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        1.2%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        6.1%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        1.9%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        1.9%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%