Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.10     67.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        50.5  48.5  46.8  42.6  29.0  19.6  17.4  25.1 VU VU VU VU  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  24.0  18.0  12.0  10.0   8.0  12.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  73.0  91.0  47.0  35.0  41.0  39.0  35.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  52.0  48.0  47.0  50.0  57.0  52.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  50.5  48.5  46.8  42.6  29.0  19.6  17.4  25.1 VU VU VU VU  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.3%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%