Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70     68.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  15.8  13.8  19.8  29.3  27.3  24.2  32.9  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   6.0   6.0   9.0  15.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 107.0 109.3 109.3 109.3 107.0 102.3  97.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  27.0  43.0  42.0  32.0  22.0  12.0  28.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  60.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  49.0  48.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.0  15.8  13.8  19.8  29.3  27.3  24.2  32.9  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.6%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       12.6%        8.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        5.5%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        5.5%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        2.4%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        5.4%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%