Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.50     68.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  11.5  20.0  24.0  24.9  23.6  30.8  33.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0  13.0  18.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 114.3 115.0 114.3 114.3 109.6 102.9 100.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  33.0  21.0  34.0  50.0  30.0  20.0   5.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  51.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  11.5  20.0  24.0  24.9  23.6  30.8  33.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.5%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%       14.1%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        6.3%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        6.3%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.4%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        7.2%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        3.2%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%