Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.60     69.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  22.1  23.6  27.3  31.4  38.8  38.5  31.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   4.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.1 105.1 109.6 107.3 107.3 102.9 100.7  96.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  27.0  31.0  34.0  21.0  13.0   1.0 -15.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  52.0  50.0  48.0  44.0  41.0  38.0  38.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.8  22.1  23.6  27.3  31.4  38.8  38.5  31.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%