Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.60     68.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  25.1  34.6  36.4  32.7  32.2  36.5  38.4  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.6 119.6 119.6 115.1 112.9 108.6 106.5 102.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  12.0  24.0  17.0  -6.0 -17.0   7.0   8.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  25.1  34.6  36.4  32.7  32.2  36.5  38.4  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%