Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102019 190925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90     67.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  34.0  36.8  32.0  32.7  37.4  38.7  39.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.0 122.0 119.6 112.9 110.7 108.6 102.4 100.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  10.0  15.0 -10.0  -1.0  12.0   3.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  39.0  40.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  40.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.9  34.0  36.8  32.0  32.7  37.4  38.7  39.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%