Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112019 190917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00     95.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6  15.1  17.2  16.4  23.5  31.5  35.7  37.1  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  10.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 115.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0 -30.0 -28.0 -18.0 -11.0   7.0  19.0  31.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  44.0  47.0  48.0  49.0  46.0  49.0  55.0 VU VU VU  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.6  15.1  17.2  16.4  23.5  31.5  35.7  37.1  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.4%       11.9%        9.7%
 25kt / 24h       16.4%       42.9%       29.6%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       26.9%       19.1%
 35kt / 24h        9.6%       26.9%       18.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%       10.4%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h        8.3%       40.7%       24.5%
 55kt / 36h        6.3%       23.8%       15.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%       10.0%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        5.0%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%