Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112019 190918 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.60     95.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  17.7  17.5  25.0  33.7  37.2  37.1  44.7  F  F  F  N  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 120.7 110.5 101.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -31.0 -19.0 -24.0 -12.0   3.0  16.0  40.0  52.0 VU  U VU  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  46.0  48.0  49.0  46.0  49.0  54.0  56.0 VU VU  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.1  17.7  17.5  25.0  33.7  37.2  37.1  44.7  F  F  F  N  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        9.4%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.4%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.9%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.1%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%