Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112019 190919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.10     94.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  39.4  39.7  45.1  47.9  42.1  42.1  42.1  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.6 121.5 115.5 108.0 106.2 104.4 104.4 104.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0   5.0  34.0  52.0  15.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  47.0  52.0  56.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  60.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.4  39.4  39.7  45.1  47.9  42.1  42.1  42.1  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%