Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122019 190924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     65.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  22.8  22.0  16.0  14.6  17.3  19.9  15.2  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  76.0  77.0  82.0  79.0  69.0  43.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  11.0  72.0   5.0  22.0  20.0  30.0  -3.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.6  22.8  22.0  16.0  14.6  17.3  19.9  15.2  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%       10.4%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.2%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%       14.6%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%        3.9%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h       14.2%       10.7%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        8.0%        2.7%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h       29.4%       18.5%       23.9%