Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122019 190924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     65.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  24.7  16.6  14.1  16.6  21.2  17.2   9.4  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  65.0  42.0  33.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  57.0  11.0   5.0  22.0  27.0  18.0  13.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.7  24.7  16.6  14.1  16.6  21.2  17.2   9.4  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        3.4%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       13.0%       30.6%       21.8%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%       12.2%       10.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       12.1%        7.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%        5.7%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h       12.2%       36.0%       24.1%
 55kt / 36h        8.2%       15.9%       12.1%
 55kt / 48h       22.2%       22.8%       22.5%
 70kt / 48h       10.9%        8.5%        9.7%
 65kt / 72h       23.3%       25.8%       24.6%