Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122019 190924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     65.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  20.9  19.8  21.5  21.8  14.7  12.6  17.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  69.0  73.0  67.0  39.0  32.0  34.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  21.0  28.0  25.0  18.0  35.0  52.0  18.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.0  20.9  19.8  21.5  21.8  14.7  12.6  17.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        3.8%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h       12.9%       28.7%       20.8%
 30kt / 24h        7.1%       11.9%        9.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       11.9%        7.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        5.4%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h       10.1%       33.3%       21.7%
 55kt / 36h        6.4%       15.4%       10.9%
 55kt / 48h       19.2%       22.0%       20.6%
 70kt / 48h        9.1%        8.2%        8.7%
 65kt / 72h       20.7%       24.2%       22.5%