Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122019 190924 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     65.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  19.4  21.7  24.5  21.6  13.8  17.8  18.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  73.0  75.0  52.0  33.0  32.0  36.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  19.0  14.0  39.0  34.0  47.0  17.0  16.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.8  19.4  21.7  24.5  21.6  13.8  17.8  18.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.3%        8.3%        6.8%
 25kt / 24h       20.9%       40.7%       30.8%
 30kt / 24h       11.3%       24.0%       17.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.8%       24.0%       14.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       10.9%        6.6%
 45kt / 36h       14.4%       43.1%       28.8%
 55kt / 36h        8.5%       24.1%       16.3%
 55kt / 48h       21.0%       27.8%       24.4%
 70kt / 48h        7.8%        9.9%        8.8%
 65kt / 72h       16.8%       24.6%       20.7%