Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122019 190925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50     65.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  28.7  29.6  24.4  17.7  20.3  18.1  14.4  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  70.0  52.0  35.0  35.0  37.0  38.0  41.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  64.0  40.0  28.0  40.0  39.0  37.0  21.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.3  28.7  29.6  24.4  17.7  20.3  18.1  14.4  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        3.3%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        8.3%       19.5%       13.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%        7.2%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        7.2%        4.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        3.3%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        8.0%       21.2%       14.6%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%        7.7%        6.0%
 55kt / 48h       12.8%       14.5%       13.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%        4.2%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h       12.9%       12.3%       12.6%