Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122019 190925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90     65.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  27.2  21.4  14.3  18.6  15.1  14.1  16.9  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  43.0  32.0  35.0  37.0  34.0  35.0  38.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  38.0  11.0   9.0  22.0  33.0  15.0  12.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.7  27.2  21.4  14.3  18.6  15.1  14.1  16.9  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.8%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%       15.4%       10.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        5.1%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        5.0%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.2%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%       15.7%       10.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%        4.7%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h       10.0%       11.7%       10.9%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        2.7%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h       13.3%        9.8%       11.5%